Russia on the Rise?

While those of us in the US have been distracted with primaries, a general election, and a huge economic crisis, Russia’s been making some moves that are raising flags and eyebrows in the intelligence community. While some people actively scoff when a new cold war is mentioned, the concept is not really that far-fetched. If you don’t believe me, let me explain what they have been up to over the past year.

George Bush always claimed to have a sense of Vladimir Putin’s soul. What he has always failed to understand is that Putin’s heart belongs with the former Communist regime. Putin is a pragmatist, and as such, made “friends” with leaders that would leave him alone, while he pursued the rebuilding of Russia as a military and economic superpower. Once his goals are accomplished, the advice of his more democratically minded “friends” will go unheeded. In fact, it has already taken place.

So what has Mr. Putin been up to? He’s been yucking it up with some of America’s most hated enemies. He’s helping Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran build his first nuclear power plant, along with supplying arms to aid their military. He just signed oil, gas, and nuclear power pact with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. It was Mr. Chavez who recently argued that the USA should ditch their constitution, and draw up a new one based upon Communist principles.

By docking their destroyer “Peter the Great” in the port of Tartus, Syria, Russia has signaled that they are reengaging in the Middle East, and could have a significant impact on peace negotiations(or lack thereof) between Israel and its neighbors. That’s not the only overture they’ve made, however.

Russia has signed arms pacts, and done deals with the following nations over the past year, in full view of the public: Libya, Sudan, Turkey, Algeria, Syria, and several other Middle-Eastern/African nations. Putin has made it clear where his strategic alliances lie, and where his bets on the future are placed. Remember, these are just the public alliances, they don’t include shadowy deals done at midnight by a pier, and as a former member of the KGB, Putin has made plenty of this type of deal as well.

Russia also continues to do arms deals with China. Russia and China are just Siamese twins, two bodies that share the same heart. Neither of them particularly like being told what to do by the UN, much less the USA. They have both taken a more nuanced approach in the diplomatic arena, by ignoring criticisms of political opponents, and focusing on accomplishments that are more palatable to their accusers. Capitalism has kept China from having to answer on human rights violations. Capitalism has kept Putin from having to answer charges of a state-controlled/supported religious system, and the fact that he has a puppet-democracy. That’s also how he managed to skate by on the invasion of Georgia, by-the-by.

So what exactly is going on with Russia? In business terms, they call it “restructuring for the purposes of emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy”. In political terms, it’s called the resurrection of a Soviet Union. The goal is to bring glory and power back to Mother Russia.

So far, Putin has succeeded. The question is, how long before the West raises an objection? My guess is, when they finally do, it will be too late for the rest of the world.

Kurt Hartman is a International Political Junkie. While he loves ruminating on foreign policy, his day job is Head of Web Development for Mobile Fleet Service. They sell OTR Tires , of the type used by heavy equipment, on six of seven continents. Go figure.







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